Bank Al-Maghrib: September 23 meeting deducts interest rate at 2.25%

On Tuesday, September 23, 2026, just one day before the legislative elections, Bank Al-Maghrib will hold a meeting of its Council to determine the fate of the main interest rate, which is currently stable at 2.25 percent, at a time when pressure is mounting on the national economy due to high fuel prices globally and domestically. Energy price pressure on the monetary decision During the first four months of 2026, the price of a barrel of oil jumped by 46 percent to about $102 on average, up from $70 before the outbreak of the Tensions in the Middle East, peaking at $119 a barrel. This rise was directly reflected in fuel prices at gas stations in Morocco, which increased by 27.6 percent year-on-year during May 2026 alone. Inflation and foreign currency reserves The Bank of Morocco expects inflation to stabilize at 1.5 per cent as an average for 2026, rising to 2.1 per cent in 2027, while core inflation (excluding foodstuffs and volatile energy prices) remains at lower levels: Inflation expectations in Morocco According to Bank Al-Maghrib Al-Sunnah, general inflation 2026 1.5% 0.2% 2027 2.1% 2.9% In contrast, Morocco's foreign currency reserves rose to 469.8 billion dirhams by April 2026, with an annual increase of 23.4%, which covers about six months of imports. Investment-oriented bank financing jumped 32.3 per cent year-on-year to AED 344.24 billion by the end of June 2026, amid expectations of a 6 per cent credit growth for the non-financial sector during 2026, in a context where Morocco's credit rating remains stable at BB+ according to Fitch. What do experts expect? Mohamed El Moussaoui, a financial advisor and expert in monetary policies, believes that "keeping the main interest rate at 2.25 per cent remains, at this stage, the scenario most in line with internal data," noting that the margin of satisfaction of Bank Al Maghrib has been reduced by high energy costs and tightening global monetary conditions. In contrast, Mohammed al-Yazidi al-Shafi 'i, an economist at Public finance, that "any possible increase in the main interest rate will necessarily have an impact on the conditions of financing the economy," and gradually on the cost of financing the treasury, in light of the currently high public financing needs. This trend is reinforced by a survey conducted by BMCE Capital Global Research, which showed that all institutional investors surveyed expect the central bank to keep the interest rate unchanged, while 90 percent of them have ruled out the scenario of raising it currently. The council meeting comes a day before One of the legislative ballots, which reduces the likelihood of a sudden decision without strong internal justifications.