HCP: Moroccan Economy to Grow 4.7% in Q4
The High Commission for Planning expects the Moroccan economy to grow 4.7% in Q4 2026, driven by extractive industries, while the IMF raises its forecasts for 2026 and 2027.
The High Commission for Planning (HCP) expects national economic activity to keep expanding at a pace of 4.7% in the fourth quarter of 2026, based on a central assumption of relatively stable energy prices and no new major shocks that could derail this path. The HCP is the official institution in charge of preparing the Kingdom's official economic and demographic statistics, and it regularly publishes forecasts to track the national economy quarter by quarter.
According to the HCP, the improvement is mainly due to the gradual return of extractive industries and related activities to a stronger growth pace.
IMF forecasts for 2026 and 2027
In the same context, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its World Economic Outlook released for the annual meetings of the Fund and the World Bank in Bangkok, revealed its forecasts for the Moroccan economy, which point to growth of 4.5% in 2026 before easing slightly to 4.2% in 2027. The Fund also expects inflation to stay at 0.9% in 2026, then rise to 1.4% in 2027.
| Year | Forecast growth | Forecast inflation |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.5% | 0.9% |
| 2027 | 4.2% | 1.4% |
What does this mean for Moroccans?
The forecasts come as the new government led by Fatima Zahra Mansouri prepares to handle the next budget against this backdrop, where preserving purchasing power and moderate inflation is expected to be one of its main tests. Inflation not exceeding 1.5% by 2027 remains a relatively positive indicator for Moroccan households, compared with earlier years that saw stronger price pressures.
The path is also expected to benefit from the support of international financing institutions, such as the €434 million loan granted by the African Development Bank to support the national economy, along with the continued strong performance of the tourism sector, which recorded 15.7 million tourists since the start of the year, up 5%, leaving Morocco in a relatively comfortable position compared with a number of emerging economies still facing multiple external shocks.
The assumption of stable energy prices, on which the HCP built its forecasts, remains the most sensitive factor in this scenario: any unexpected rise in global fuel prices could force official institutions to revise their figures in the coming months.